Short-term supply increase in domestic smelting sector is limited; high SHFE tin prices keep spot cargo transactions subdued [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract (SN2506) on May 15, 2025

In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate at highs. It opened at 266,520 yuan/mt, with narrowed intraday fluctuations, and closed around 265,250 yuan/mt at lunchtime, up slightly by 0.23% from the previous trading day. Open interest decreased slightly to 29,600 lots, with neutral to weak market trading activity. The competition between bulls and bears intensified near the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold.

​​Domestic smelting sector remains under pressure​​: Refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces are constrained by raw material shortages, with operating rates remaining low (approximately 57%). However, the production resumption process in Myanmar's Wa region is clear, coupled with rising recycling costs for scrap tin, limiting short-term supply growth.

The spot market remains sluggish, with tin ingot transaction prices fluctuating around 265,000 yuan/mt. Downstream solder and electronics companies are only making just-in-time procurement.